MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f5d8651db2706ca356b6a0845ab5772484d93d926f33a209c3660bd1c4519c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Royals, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Royals | 47c | 20,386$9,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,804.66 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Royals | 48c | 10,500$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,460.33 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Twins | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Twins | 53c | 8,500$4,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,505 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals | 40c | 8,111$3,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,881.32 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Twins | 61c | 7,001$4,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,265.74 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Twins | 52c | 6,070$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.48 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 53c | 4,928$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.68 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 52c | 4,374$2,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.78 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 60c | 3,189$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Royals | 40c | 3,008$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.88 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Royals | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…8250backed Twins | 56c | 2,959$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Twins | 57c | 2,293$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.37 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Royals | 47c | 1,757$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.87 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Royals | 45c | 1,734$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.58 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Royals | 48c | 1,653$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.98 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 59c | 1,475$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.68 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Royals | 34c | 1,454$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.29 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Twins | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Twins | 52c | 999.97$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.59 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Twins | 53c | 940$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.2 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 53c | 871.47$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.8 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Twins | 59c | 803.04$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.3 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 37c | 734.93$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.01 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Twins | 68c | 729.5$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.06 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Twins | 55c | 545.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…070fbacked Twins | 72c | 500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1290…5269backed Royals | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Twins | 42c | 461.6$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Twins | 58c | 437.75$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.1 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Royals | 37c | 402.76$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.76 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68a…4ddcbacked Twins | 71c | 351.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…e547backed Royals | 45c | 328.65$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.76 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Twins | 56c | 283.51$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…818ebacked Twins | 64c | 256.43$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Twins | 53c | 235.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Royals | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Royals | 51c | 213$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Twins | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Twins | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Twins | 64c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Royals | 30c | 120.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Twins | 34c | 118.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Royals | 44c | 114.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Royals | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Twins | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Royals | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Royals | 47c | 97.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Royals | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Royals | 45c | 90.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0229…ea6cbacked Twins | 66c | 84.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 417 | 47.2%197 W · 220 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…4d0bbacked Royals | 50c | 78.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Twins | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…e358backed Twins | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Twins | 52c | 64.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1a…8697backed Royals | 48c | 63.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…f6cfbacked Royals | 46c | 63.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Royals | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed Twins | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…dba9backed Twins | 54c | 44.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Royals | 48c | 42.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Twins | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…a5b9backed Royals | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Royals | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…3986backed Twins | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Royals | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Royals | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaae…8a95backed Twins | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Royals | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Royals | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Royals | 60c | 20.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…adb8backed Twins | 73c | 18.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.