Fifa International · resolved market
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f5ebc53d4eed8d39f88c1fa10fbaae849a0bcd5964d95a6af3512ffecd62d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe15e…25f4backed Over | 21c | 3,314$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 228 | 13.2%30 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 2,078$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.39 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…592abacked Under | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 24c | 1,271$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 16c | 699.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 33c | 391.7$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 205 | 60%123 W · 82 L | +17.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 17c | 366$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Under | 75c | 256$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 348 | 45.1%157 W · 191 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 237.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 25c | 199$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 25c | 168$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 34c | 151.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 118$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 94.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Over | 35c | 55.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 248 | 40.3%100 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…3755backed Under | 77c | 49.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…adfabacked Under | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…952ebacked Under | 76c | 30.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…a9a4backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 78c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 91 | 74.7%68 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 78c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 77c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a5…445fbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5this page
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 0.5Over won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5Under won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5Under won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5Under won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Indonesia (-1.5)Mozambique won
- Spread: Indonesia (-2.5)Mozambique won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.