Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Indonesia (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e1fafa8e512b4ce62b3d8c7265124da6d78aa6941fda8d316ed7d916a1371f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mozambiqueof Indonesia, Mozambique
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Indonesia | 26c | 4,611$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.61 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Mozambique | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.95 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Mozambique | 64c | 2,199$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Indonesia | 36c | 1,376$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indonesia | 39c | 1,230$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.38 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Mozambique | 79c | 719.99$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Mozambique | 75c | 599.87$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.49 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…f866backed Indonesia | 41c | 466.88$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Mozambique | 63c | 396$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Mozambique | 63c | 344.58$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Mozambique | 68c | 312.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 145 | 64.1%93 W · 52 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indonesia | 33c | 255.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Mozambique | 70c | 185.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mozambique | 72c | 178.57$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Mozambique | 73c | 177.78$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Indonesia | 34c | 167.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 716 | 38.4%275 W · 441 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Indonesia | 31c | 149.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 365 | 43.3%158 W · 207 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Indonesia | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Mozambique | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Indonesia | 25c | 79.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…e259backed Indonesia | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Indonesia | 31c | 63.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mozambique | 64c | 59.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Indonesia | 24c | 58.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mozambique | 73c | 49.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Indonesia | 34c | 45.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Mozambique | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 242 | 57.9%140 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…d2bebacked Indonesia | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Mozambique | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Mozambique | 68c | 26.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 681 | 41.1%280 W · 401 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mozambique | 68c | 25.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mozambique | 78c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…1c10backed Mozambique | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mozambique | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indonesia (-2.5)this page
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 0.5Over won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5Under won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5Under won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5Under won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5Under won
- Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Indonesia (-1.5)Mozambique won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.