TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Winthrop University (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Winthrop Universityof Conviction, Winthrop University
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,224

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,347 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfa8…cae6backed Conviction59c3,870$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.8582953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed Conviction54c1,586$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.4616451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Winthrop University46c1,431$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.461,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Winthrop University42c1,243$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71929738.7%115 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Winthrop University44c1,155$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.5229447.6%140 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Winthrop University40c742.2$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.51,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa245…2152backed Winthrop University37c610$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.36939.1%27 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed Winthrop University47c607.5$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.022231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Winthrop University40c539.08$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.352,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Conviction51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25589050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Winthrop University41c459.58$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2835443.2%153 W · 201 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Conviction50c455.83$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.921,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Winthrop University47c442.26$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.41,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b39…8b50backed Conviction54c442.08$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.5844850.7%227 W · 221 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a9a…72e7backed Winthrop University49c422.6$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5223946%110 W · 129 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Conviction54c375.24$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.681,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6272…b853backed Conviction53c365.5$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.351936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Winthrop University40c300$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17960243.4%261 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Conviction54c300$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16279745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Winthrop University41c223.92$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.4574637.9%283 W · 463 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Conviction67c223.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15024554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Conviction52c178$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5656949.4%281 W · 288 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Conviction55c174.55$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.672,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Winthrop University48c147.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0852441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc0d…fea7backed Conviction50c137.47$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Winthrop University49c127.29$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9218648.9%91 W · 95 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Winthrop University49c127.29$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9244745.2%202 W · 245 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Winthrop University61c115$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3897854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked Winthrop University45c108.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4627348%131 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Winthrop University48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1715248.7%74 W · 78 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed Conviction59c99.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5939251.3%201 W · 191 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b77…6ba1backed Winthrop University44c90$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.45234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5819…2b4fbacked Winthrop University41c79.71$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0350550.7%256 W · 249 L+34.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ee…7c1ebacked Winthrop University41c57.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Winthrop University46c52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.089748.5%47 W · 50 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Winthrop University40c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.041,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7852…9ec7backed Conviction55c40.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.39633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Conviction55c38.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2666059.8%395 W · 265 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe720…ce31backed Winthrop University45c37.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.665335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Winthrop University45c31.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.191,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Conviction34c30.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.512,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Conviction55c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8512840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Winthrop University44c26.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8238555.1%212 W · 173 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa95…5b7cbacked Conviction57c26.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a29…8cc4backed Winthrop University41c25.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8441151.1%210 W · 201 L+19.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Winthrop University45c24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Conviction53c22.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9537650%188 W · 188 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Conviction52c22.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5224832.3%80 W · 168 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.