MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8faca32a5c022a9b61b4d8dc00c2fc68111247266577a5e5a6f176659fa37ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Reds, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Reds | 36c | 5,821$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.29 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Astros | 63c | 4,519$2,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.96 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…a2cabacked Reds | 38c | 1,644$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…5f7cbacked Astros | 62c | 1,640$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Astros | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 36c | 790.93$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.69 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Astros | 64c | 780.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 389 | 49.1%191 W · 198 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astros | 72c | 735$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.05 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Reds | 37c | 694.77$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.06 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Reds | 36c | 664$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.88 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Reds | 35c | 485.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.82 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Reds | 28c | 473.79$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.97 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Reds | 37c | 471.05$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.65 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 26c | 461.1$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Reds | 6c | 397.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Reds | 36c | 278.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Astros | 64c | 249.78$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 32c | 207.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Reds | 36c | 204.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Reds | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Astros | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Reds | 36c | 171.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Astros | 63c | 166$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…38b7backed Reds | 39c | 100.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Reds | 40c | 100.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Astros | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Astros | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Reds | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…022bbacked Astros | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Astros | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…4979backed Astros | 64c | 71.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…9362backed Reds | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -6.4wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…2695backed Reds | 19c | 58.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Astros | 63c | 56.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Astros | 66c | 55.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Reds | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Astros | 64c | 48.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Reds | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Astros | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Astros | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Astros | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…c293backed Astros | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Astros | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818e…b787backed Astros | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Astros | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Astros | 77c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…3091backed Astros | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Astros | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.