Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Tearlaments (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fd49eb44988a1a33e68f85cc28f1b5605108926d6d560e6a29cb60655d23757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39c6…daeebacked Tearlaments | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Tearlaments | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Tearlaments | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.97 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Tearlaments | 21c | 1,405$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.32 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Tearlaments | 13c | 1,372$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.8 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7b…c33ebacked Heroic | 80c | 1,267$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…de25backed Tearlaments | 20c | 1,266$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Tearlaments | 25c | 1,200$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.2 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Heroic | 75c | 1,128$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.95 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…fc03backed Tearlaments | 18c | 999.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 79c | 993.14$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.56 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Tearlaments | 20c | 652.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.29 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed Heroic | 78c | 650$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heroic | 79c | 629.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1e…b029backed Tearlaments | 6c | 568.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4057…3e70backed Tearlaments | 4c | 515.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…92a0backed Tearlaments | 22c | 448.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Tearlaments | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Heroic | 78c | 384.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Heroic | 76c | 319.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Tearlaments | 21c | 311.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Tearlaments | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Tearlaments | 24c | 292.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Tearlaments | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Heroic | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Tearlaments | 12c | 239.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tearlaments | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Tearlaments | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tearlaments | 23c | 198$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 79c | 177.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Tearlaments | 19c | 162.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 77c | 161.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Heroic | 78c | 153$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments | 16c | 150.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d34…ddfcbacked Tearlaments | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tearlaments | 23c | 144$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…e91bbacked Heroic | 78c | 141.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tearlaments | 22c | 138.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tearlaments | 14c | 135.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…7f0abacked Heroic | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f2…3263backed Heroic | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5216…1bbabacked Tearlaments | 13c | 114.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…5111backed Heroic | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…895dbacked Tearlaments | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tearlaments | 19c | 98.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tearlaments | 21c | 93.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Tearlaments | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…4532backed Heroic | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked Heroic | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +6.5wins | +0.24per pick | 69cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Tearlaments | 21c | 64.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Tearlaments | 22c | 61.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Heroic | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Tearlaments | 23c | 57.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Heroic | 76c | 52.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Heroic | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…b5dabacked Heroic | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Heroic | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Heroic | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…922ebacked Tearlaments | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Heroic | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…f64ebacked Heroic | 77c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed Heroic | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…c9b1backed Heroic | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…c2b5backed Heroic | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…0c19backed Heroic | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked Heroic | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…8b43backed Heroic | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…89b0backed Heroic | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…4544backed Heroic | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…7d17backed Heroic | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Heroic | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.