NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fdb7c92cf259cdb0b1f61ae75aefcad82577434c778f8d8f4719cc66f74d3b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 15,878$7,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,409.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 5,745$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.68 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4c…94fdbacked Under | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf88d…796dbacked Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…2396backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5442…6fa7backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 346$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 48c | 326$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 95.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 53c | 94.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…bcf2backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Over | 46c | 22.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Under | 54c | 22.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5this page
- Max Christie: Points Over 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.