NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296ae57592dfee9aba80a8cc71a06dc46225a1d5821e2382575114597faa067c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Nuggets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb889…a430backed Mavericks | 52c | 43,898$22,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,128.6 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Nuggets | 48c | 32,410$15,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,556.8 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 50c | 15,605$7,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,802.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Nuggets | 50c | 10,000$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.56 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c5…cc0bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 9,400$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…95efbacked Mavericks | 52c | 7,671$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,670.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Mavericks | 50c | 6,946$3,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.94 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Nuggets | 48c | 6,121$2,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,938.08 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…45b2backed Mavericks | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nuggets | 49c | 4,709$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.11 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 48c | 4,434$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 49c | 2,981$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.41 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Mavericks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Nuggets | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -11.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Mavericks | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Mavericks | 51c | 789.95$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.07 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Mavericks | 52c | 533.37$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.02 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Nuggets | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 67c | 425.3$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 52c | 412.67$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.15 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Nuggets | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a09…3c83backed Nuggets | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Nuggets | 47c | 300$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Nuggets | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Nuggets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Mavericks | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Nuggets | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mavericks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Mavericks | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…d2c7backed Nuggets | 50c | 196$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Mavericks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdafc…dbadbacked Mavericks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Mavericks | 46c | 151.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Nuggets | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…2332backed Nuggets | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Nuggets | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Nuggets | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Mavericks | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Mavericks | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Nuggets | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Nuggets | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Mavericks | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Mavericks | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Nuggets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Nuggets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Nuggets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…55b8backed Nuggets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…19debacked Nuggets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Nuggets | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mavericks | 67c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)this page
- Max Christie: Points Over 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.