NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c57ecbe5043a1a6019862f127731da8b1502f1ab85454bd090dfddcd91a844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 52c | 2,669$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.66 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 748.11$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 48c | 572.92$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.92 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 55c | 512$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.6 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 53c | 329$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.65 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 309$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.86 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 309$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 214$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 40c | 204.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.43 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 196.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 54c | 155$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 45c | 142.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 118$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 53c | 118$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 108$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 57c | 86.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 77.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 47c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 37.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Under | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Over | 44c | 24.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5this page
- Max Christie: Points Over 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.