NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66037f80c5c50a3b6517ad0aa9416bb199243894c2903911a8b583e32ec1c1e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 54c | 28,472$15,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,097.07 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…ed53backed Under | 46c | 10,870$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 51c | 7,275$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,540.12 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 6,217$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…7aa4backed Under | 46c | 5,652$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…6df6backed Under | 46c | 4,348$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 46c | 4,298$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.19 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 50c | 3,466$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.81 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 47c | 1,108$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.76 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 837$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.39 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 769.47$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.35 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…2cdfbacked Under | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 52c | 599.17$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.6 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 48c | 505$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 46c | 379$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.34 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Over | 49c | 296.49$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.21 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 144.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 51c | 137.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 89.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 77.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Under | 47c | 56.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5this page
- Max Christie: Points Over 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.