NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa59bc238253656e140e5bdcb88cc7cf2fcc86ff40b0c3de803ecf203477cb848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Nuggets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 46c | 7,815$3,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,572.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Mavericks | 55c | 5,638$3,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.8 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Mavericks | 55c | 4,992$2,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.47 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 44c | 2,045$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.8 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 46c | 1,479$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.52 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 1,430$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Nuggets | 47c | 802.56$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.2 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Mavericks | 54c | 714$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.44 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Nuggets | 46c | 478.67$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.19 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mavericks | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Mavericks | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Mavericks | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Mavericks | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed Mavericks | 54c | 284.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.93 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Nuggets | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Nuggets | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Nuggets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Mavericks | 51c | 199.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…93bbbacked Mavericks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Mavericks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 47c | 176.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Mavericks | 54c | 159.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Nuggets | 46c | 111.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 48c | 102.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Nuggets | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Nuggets | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Mavericks | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Nuggets | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d6a4backed Nuggets | 36c | 96.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Mavericks | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 46c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Mavericks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nuggets | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Nuggets | 55c | 91.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Nuggets | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Mavericks | 45c | 81.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Mavericks | 54c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Mavericks | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Mavericks | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Mavericks | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…bcf2backed Nuggets | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Mavericks | 49c | 56.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…6d5cbacked Mavericks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Nuggets | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Mavericks | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Nuggets | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Nuggets | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Nuggets | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Mavericks | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…b09ebacked Mavericks | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Mavericks | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Mavericks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Mavericks | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Nuggets | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Nuggets | 47c | 22.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mavericks | 63c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Nuggets | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Mavericks | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)this page
- Max Christie: Points Over 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.