NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54d142ca3c2995e92d5e54734bfd403604c1f32c67c38a9d700bfa785b8c515e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 51c | 22,492$11,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,021.07 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…9afcbacked Under | 49c | 10,204$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,199.99 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 6,192$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.22 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…6df6backed Under | 49c | 6,082$2,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,980 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…eda3backed Under | 49c | 5,462$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,677 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 5,461$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.11 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 5,443$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.93 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…cf16backed Under | 51c | 4,898$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 50c | 4,870$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…60c2backed Under | 52c | 4,620$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 52c | 3,150$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 2,739$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.5 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,143$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Under | 52c | 1,783$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.24 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a51abacked Over | 53c | 1,300$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59f…d53cbacked Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 51c | 275$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabb…0cf6backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 49c | 142.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 119.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 385 | 45.7%176 W · 209 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 50c | 90.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 48c | 71.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 51c | 59.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 55c | 54.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Under | 51c | 39.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 50c | 31.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5this page
- Max Christie: Points Over 8.5No won
- Nuggets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.