Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901357cd353a86232d8dae52a7f257ee1d6556ad1799f534c0b0cd6619918a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 2,091$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.41 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 1,657$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.31 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…3fbabacked Over | 52c | 1,324$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 49c | 1,139$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.34 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 37c | 1,000$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.22 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 698.53$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.7 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 67c | 418.16$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.37 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 69c | 299.62$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 258.59$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 71c | 247.89$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 58c | 180.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Under | 14c | 140.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 68c | 115.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…b130backed Over | 24c | 114.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 62c | 96.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 24c | 95.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 24c | 82.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 63c | 29.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 76c | 28.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Under | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 0.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.