NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9052823b9cab69d304d8a97a21cab749502b37114cd4071ac467d477b8ff2d66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 48c | 38,049$18,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,657.01 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 53c | 35,814$18,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,981.19 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 7,500$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 54c | 6,325$3,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,415.21 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 4,658$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.53 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 47c | 4,036$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.34 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.98 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 45c | 2,855$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.73 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Over | 47c | 1,250$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 55c | 874.55$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 53c | 512.59$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.49 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Under | 54c | 500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 420$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 50c | 271$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 220$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 150.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Under | 54c | 149.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Under | 53c | 37.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 47c | 33.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 53c | 28.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 47.5this page
- 49ers vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers won
- 49ers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Buccaneers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.