NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f34c2c9af64c7712c91be3f986b0fc3ce1dd690e31ad0ed60745b31ef5c6f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Buccaneers, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed 49ers | 52c | 68,516$35,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,543.59 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Buccaneers | 48c | 49,315$23,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,644.58 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Buccaneers | 55c | 43,416$23,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,602.31 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed 49ers | 45c | 35,605$16,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,126.84 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Buccaneers | 48c | 25,554$12,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,288.29 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 49ers | 40c | 8,029$3,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,245.96 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked 49ers | 58c | 8,000$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed 49ers | 52c | 6,500$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,380 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…d999backed Buccaneers | 47c | 5,577$2,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,955.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Buccaneers | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Buccaneers | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked 49ers | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…2c31backed 49ers | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed 49ers | 51c | 3,605$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.51 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Buccaneers | 48c | 3,584$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.97 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked 49ers | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed 49ers | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Buccaneers | 49c | 1,826$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.26 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Buccaneers | 49c | 1,330$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.86 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed 49ers | 52c | 1,009$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Buccaneers | 48c | 720.44$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.7 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked 49ers | 52c | 666$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.39 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Buccaneers | 48c | 541.59$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.32 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Buccaneers | 49c | 505$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.55 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…dcb0backed Buccaneers | 55c | 410$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Buccaneers | 50c | 383.09$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked 49ers | 51c | 330.41$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed 49ers | 52c | 320$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Buccaneers | 49c | 310$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed 49ers | 52c | 303.31$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed 49ers | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed 49ers | 51c | 294$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Buccaneers | 40c | 260$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked 49ers | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Buccaneers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked 49ers | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Buccaneers | 49c | 203$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Buccaneers | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed 49ers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Buccaneers | 48c | 190.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Buccaneers | 45c | 132.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Buccaneers | 56c | 129.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Buccaneers | 44c | 121.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed 49ers | 56c | 110.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Buccaneers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Buccaneers | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked 49ers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Buccaneers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Buccaneers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked 49ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 49ers | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Buccaneers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Buccaneers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Buccaneers | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Buccaneers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked 49ers | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…ce1cbacked Buccaneers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed 49ers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…d3e7backed Buccaneers | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…4340backed 49ers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Buccaneers | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed 49ers | 41c | 31.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…8743backed Buccaneers | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked 49ers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked 49ers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked 49ers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked 49ers | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed 49ers | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…77b6backed Buccaneers | 49c | 21.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Buccaneers | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)this page
- 49ers vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers won
- 49ers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 46.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.