Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90631113a39ffd16ed49ecc8398bd12c5be0f3736620e2d31506d7f14ef4c5a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Indiana Hoosiers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 54c | 3,777$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.73 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 3,632$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.26 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Indiana Hoosiers | 54c | 917.88$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.65 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 902.23$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.2 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 749.02$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.73 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 54c | 621.63$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.39 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Indiana Hoosiers | 53c | 599.1$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.52 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 438.05$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.34 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 399.13$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.55 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Indiana Hoosiers | 15c | 397$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 323.25$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.56 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 302.13$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.87 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Indiana Hoosiers | 54c | 231.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Indiana Hoosiers | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…37f3backed Indiana Hoosiers | 55c | 191.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Indiana Hoosiers | 56c | 175.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 43c | 154.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 126.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 122.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 101.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Indiana Hoosiers | 57c | 87.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Indiana Hoosiers | 55c | 74.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Indiana Hoosiers | 51c | 71.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 407 | 55.8%227 W · 180 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Indiana Hoosiers | 51c | 69.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 52c | 67.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 57.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Indiana Hoosiers | 51c | 53.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Indiana Hoosiers | 55c | 39.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Indiana Hoosiers | 28c | 39.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Indiana Hoosiers | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Michigan State Spartans | 44c | 29.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 29.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Indiana Hoosiers | 51c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Indiana Hoosiers | 55c | 29.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea05…6e25backed Indiana Hoosiers | 53c | 24.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana HoosiersMichigan State Spartans won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers: O/U 144.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)Michigan State Spartans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.