Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x405ba01b20f64e3e0b2a4336c24a7eaaa0a9ce5c485198132d4c75a833da6681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Indiana Hoosiers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 80,515$42,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,849.87 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 76,617$36,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,010.16 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…da92backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 9,231$4,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,274.19 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 9,084$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,234.87 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 5,498$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,530.96 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 4,299$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.14 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.17 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 2,722$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 53c | 1,856$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.29 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 1,060$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.6 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 662.05$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.73 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Indiana Hoosiers | 53c | 654.23$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.94 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…a82fbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 495.63$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 374.57$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 164 | 45.1%74 W · 90 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 249.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 233.24$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.29 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Indiana Hoosiers | 46c | 157.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 153.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 129.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 125.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 110.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 101.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…37f3backed Indiana Hoosiers | 51c | 99.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Indiana Hoosiers | 12c | 91.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Indiana Hoosiers | 45c | 87.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Indiana Hoosiers | 31c | 79.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Indiana Hoosiers | 50c | 78.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 67.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 65.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…effdbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 50.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 47c | 44.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 42.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Indiana Hoosiers | 32c | 40.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Indiana Hoosiers | 29c | 34.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 48c | 34.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 30.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Indiana Hoosiers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…6562backed Indiana Hoosiers | 49c | 29.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Indiana Hoosiers | 45c | 25.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 19.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-2.5)this page
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana HoosiersMichigan State Spartans won
- Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers: O/U 144.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)Michigan State Spartans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.