Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908297d0cfc07e7971f5cef131b32707e80f0d840aea774b7deaa57051c79b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,472 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 1c | 11,406$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,714$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 51c | 1,027$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.42 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 46c | 658$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.26 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 20c | 643.5$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 642.65$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.83 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 72c | 623.62$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.59 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 2c | 620.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 11c | 551.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 11c | 498.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 8c | 482.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 476.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 395.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 49c | 373.2$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 368.19$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 321.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 318.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 6c | 288.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 70c | 286.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 7c | 280$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 277.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 237.02$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 226.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d7…3499backed Yes | 76c | 212$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 57c | 198.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 190.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 9c | 177.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 165$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 60c | 151.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 32c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 149.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 129.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 46c | 124.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 14c | 117.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 12c | 110.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 72c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 47c | 108.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 17c | 99.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 11c | 95.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 94.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 46c | 80.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 17c | 79.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 46c | 69.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcb…56d1backed No | 80c | 62.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 62.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 41c | 58.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 71c | 54.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 47c | 49.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 79c | 43.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 55c | 33.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777c…8722backed Yes | 43c | 32.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 48c | 30.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…6982backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 46c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…d925backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 72c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.