Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x268a9a2b94750eaaa9031e244897b582d898b8b9754834197826e1e5a07c7489
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,097 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,968$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,028$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 502.39$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 434$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 422.57$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 37c | 414.12$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 35c | 378$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 51c | 271.54$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.43 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 42c | 239.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 26c | 235.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 235$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 32c | 219.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 46c | 215.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 190$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 39c | 170.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 74c | 156.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 34c | 155.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 65c | 154.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 26c | 151.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 149.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 144.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 31c | 139.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 51c | 137.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 60c | 136.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 17c | 132.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 34c | 129.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 32c | 126.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 61c | 120.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 29c | 119.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +217%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 56c | 117.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 117$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 115.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 112.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 68c | 105.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 104.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 49c | 101.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 101.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 36c | 96.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 33c | 91.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…6b02backed Yes | 34c | 88.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 59c | 84.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 28c | 80.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 79.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 77.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed No | 67c | 74.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 74.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 72.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 35c | 71.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 68c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 60.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 35c | 59.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 57.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 33c | 56.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…aed1backed Yes | 37c | 54.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked No | 69c | 52.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 51.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 73c | 51.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 34c | 50.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…fc87backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 48.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…bff4backed Yes | 32c | 47.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…c2cdbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 64c | 43.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 34c | 43.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 42.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e4…fc45backed Yes | 45c | 42.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 32c | 41.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 35c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 43c | 40.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 38.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 28c | 38.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 38.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 69c | 36.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 35.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 35.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 34.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 33.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 32.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.