TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,097 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes1c1,968$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.68340%0 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes1c1,028$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c502.39$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.736,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c434$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c422.57$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes37c414.12$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes35c378$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9223823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes51c271.54$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4354143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes27c240$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.823738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes42c239.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.995733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes26c235.93$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9435018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes38c235$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.870133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes32c219.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3729459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes46c215.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0233058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes38c190$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes39c170.21$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7517338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes74c156.15$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.343956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes34c155.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.949756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes65c154.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009877.6%76 W · 22 L+16.3wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+38.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes26c151.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0356424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No61c149.37$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.871,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c144.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.991,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes31c139.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes51c137.2$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No60c136.14$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes17c132.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes31c130$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.116234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes34c129.71$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.331,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…6c10backed Yes32c126.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes61c120.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2729653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Yes29c119.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+217%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes56c117.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1318550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c117$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.012,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes25c115.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.211,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No66c112.5$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.463,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No68c105.04$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No60c104.13$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.091,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes49c101.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c101.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.533,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes36c96.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8534219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92f4…63d9backed Yes33c91.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.148130.9%25 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1411…6b02backed Yes34c88.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2002…996bbacked Yes59c84.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.66578.5%51 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+22.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No65c83$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.811,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes28c80.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.212932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes36c79.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.561,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c77.7$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbc2…e280backed No67c74.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.742070%14 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes41c74.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No65c72.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.291,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes35c71.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No68c62$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8427464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes30c61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.359818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes30c60.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes35c59.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.756835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c57.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.682,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes33c56.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7758732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf01d…aed1backed Yes37c54.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.089,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked No69c52.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3415626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c51.16$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.188,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No73c51.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7810371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes34c50.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0421333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2344448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.59341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.85135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.527540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x061f…fc87backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c48.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9670770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41d3…bff4backed Yes32c47.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes40c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.125239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e0…c2cdbacked Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40e0…69e3backed No64c43.61$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.73259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes34c43.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.782133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes35c42.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e4…fc45backed Yes45c42.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7340%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes32c41.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No35c41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6515339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes43c40.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4527560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.419449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No66c38.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.167,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes28c38.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.756121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes31c38.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b2…74b8backed No66c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.888968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No69c36.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.439943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No53c35.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.721,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No69c35.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8747442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed Yes30c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.521722.6%49 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No69c34.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.663,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No68c33.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.781,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes32c32.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.