Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9d5654da169bf2da9ef6f6204c8a6ef6eb42450c9de214ff1a876e4917fb32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,370$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.31 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,311$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 6c | 581.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.62 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked No | 25c | 567.07$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 5c | 509.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 492.46$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 489.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 442.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 416.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 13c | 343.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.15 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 315.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.77 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 65c | 314.88$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 46c | 288.2$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.84 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 262.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.8 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 34c | 253.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 233.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.49 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 233.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 227$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 8c | 224.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.99 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 13c | 222.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.55 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 219.56$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 31c | 209.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 188.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 7c | 187$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 180.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 171$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 165$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 17c | 148.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…8ed1backed No | 75c | 143.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 14c | 136.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…b962backed No | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 111.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 101.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 16c | 101$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 13c | 98.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 49c | 85.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 18c | 76.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 18c | 72.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 33c | 67.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 66.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 20c | 66.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 44c | 62.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 23c | 58.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…5475backed No | 32c | 31.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…86eabacked Yes | 43c | 30.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 46c | 28.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 80c | 12.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.