Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe13c1780fdb961963148ebb39a8fd07016899527af50b01ddcdc748d9a065d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,104 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 3c | 2,132$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…cdd0backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd56…8f62backed No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,276$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.22 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 1,163$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 496.96$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.59 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 19c | 480.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.93 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 45c | 439.32$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.84 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 361.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 357.17$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 40c | 345.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 330.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 69c | 300$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.73 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 262.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 45c | 249.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 236.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 213.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 20c | 203$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 199.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 54c | 185.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 32c | 181.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 171.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 49c | 170.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 168.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 165$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 161.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 50c | 156.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 152.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 18c | 147.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 139.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…eab7backed No | 70c | 135$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 71cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 75c | 133.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 43c | 132.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 132.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 130.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 38c | 129.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 19c | 127.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 127.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 126.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 64c | 124.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 11c | 121.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 34c | 118.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 60c | 114.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 48c | 103.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 100.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 46c | 99.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 95.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…13dabacked Yes | 41c | 88.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 61c | 83.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 82.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 31c | 81.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 75.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 27c | 74.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 24c | 74.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 71.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…2ae1backed No | 37c | 70.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 23c | 67.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 54c | 63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 47c | 61.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 41c | 58.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 57c | 55.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 61c | 50.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…6982backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 49.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 41c | 49.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 60c | 46.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 26c | 46.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 64c | 46.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 38c | 45.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 75c | 44.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 43.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 38c | 41.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 49c | 40.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 46c | 40.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 38.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 38.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…2a29backed Yes | 28c | 38.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…375fbacked No | 61c | 37.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 31c | 37.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 39c | 36.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…f2d3backed Yes | 30c | 35.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…e95bbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.