Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on December 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90b95007c633f63bbecccf8cadfeb741945bac0f6d39eac45cd7054681775157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0641…c8c6backed No | 0c | 157,009$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 71c | 578.58$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 32c | 452.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…9beebacked No | 69c | 440.8$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 60c | 354.61$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 64c | 280.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed No | 50c | 279.03$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.17 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 248.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 51c | 232.03$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 68c | 213.11$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 55c | 211.91$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…446dbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 37c | 195.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.78 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 42c | 179.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed Yes | 65c | 161.46$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 32c | 141.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 33c | 138.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked No | 49c | 131.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 20c | 113.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 60c | 111.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5578…4ccbbacked Yes | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 50c | 99.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8ff4backed Yes | 59c | 98.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…89d2backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…9adbbacked No | 65c | 61.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 39c | 60.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes | 47c | 58.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 43c | 46.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…3799backed Yes | 66c | 38.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 56c | 35.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64f5…635fbacked No | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…6c59backed Yes | 62c | 30.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…7b58backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on December 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.