Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x619b4b83913b1e0e29b7fed0d26f123948b89b2c853c1dc733f8a72f49dc41c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 27c | 1,400$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 48c | 999.81$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.67 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…c8c6backed No | 57c | 705.49$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 5c | 662.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 642.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 33c | 640.57$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.01 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 30c | 603.02$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.3 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 75c | 363.96$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 55c | 288.08$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.24 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 49c | 260.49$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 228.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 33c | 220$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 198.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 50c | 182$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 47c | 182$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 168.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked No | 70c | 166$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked Yes | 50c | 131$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…8933backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 58c | 95.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed Yes | 36c | 83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…3799backed Yes | 51c | 74.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…9adbbacked Yes | 39c | 63.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 45c | 62.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 57c | 60.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…0102backed No | 55c | 53.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked No | 54c | 52.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…6861backed Yes | 49c | 51.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 50.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ec…0f81backed Yes | 50c | 48.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2aa…06eabacked No | 56c | 45.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…8078backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 62c | 33.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…efcbbacked No | 54c | 31.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…5c8abacked No | 65c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 45c | 30.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…89d2backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed Yes | 49c | 20.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aab…626abacked No | 54c | 18.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on December 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.