Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90c3ffbb3c3ee7126e3d93a34301b364c4dacb705b903b199963594cc92a4393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 11c | 348$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 237.6$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 56c | 210.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 210$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 204.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 182.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 59c | 169.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 163.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 146.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 140.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 49c | 118.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 110.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 104.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 104.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 57c | 98.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 95.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 83.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 43c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 48c | 64.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 63.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 53.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 24c | 52.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 22c | 47.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 41c | 44.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 42.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 35.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…15f9backed Yes | 41c | 34.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 33.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 58c | 31.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 29.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 43c | 28.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 27.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 52c | 25.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 24.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed Yes | 42c | 24.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 77c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 55c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 59c | 17.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 80c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 80c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.