MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90d1ba7c2ce9b3e1ab779d6034fe9c3f244933de4b0229a6a0aee217773d104f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 387.16$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.07 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed New York Yankees | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 350 | 56%196 W · 154 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 68c | 240$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 206.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed New York Yankees | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 54.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed New York Yankees | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed New York Yankees | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 36.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 66c | 35.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed New York Yankees | 72c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed New York Yankees | 71c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.