MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29981b5df6d5b3d2dc8be3562556dc6df349d7b82696335589d0f0c4f03cc763
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 8,855$5,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,298.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 21c | 2,889$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 2,859$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 1,278$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 61c | 1,079$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.19 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 40c | 1,010$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.34 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 38c | 568.36$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.03 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 562$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 39c | 505.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.17 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 485.17$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…5ab8backed Over | 55c | 450.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 40c | 430.33$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.2 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 40c | 378.9$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.34 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 353.94$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 40c | 275.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 29c | 253.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 23c | 222.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over | 63c | 176.42$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 63c | 172.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 62c | 170.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 61c | 163.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 61c | 149.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 57c | 115$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 61c | 114.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 20c | 102.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 61c | 73.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 40c | 73.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 39c | 72.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 37c | 70.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 62c | 65.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 63c | 55.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Over | 61c | 54.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Under | 40c | 52.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 61c | 49.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 40c | 46.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 41c | 42.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 63c | 42.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…078bbacked Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 61c | 32.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over | 56c | 32.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 54c | 27.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…809cbacked Over | 47c | 26.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…a164backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 60c | 21.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Over | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 60c | 17.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.