MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb91dd6176ddbc217612c83c7681f0a52a47af54b54f664e6896f042c347b5620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8201…8a41backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 65,000$40,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,079.26 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 17,395$7,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,262.76 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 42c | 13,055$5,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,523.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 18c | 12,178$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 14c | 8,114$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 3,500$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 2,914$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.71 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 17c | 1,444$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.53 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed New York Yankees | 43c | 1,056$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.09 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 890.77$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.65 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 851.48$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.93 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 750.24$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.64 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 518.35$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…46e8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…97b6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 325.54$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.01 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Philadelphia Phillies | 17c | 300.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 278$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 12c | 256.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 49c | 240$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 224.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 220$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Philadelphia Phillies | 17c | 216.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 215.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 213.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed New York Yankees | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed New York Yankees | 73c | 198$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 177.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed New York Yankees | 29c | 154.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 47c | 141.61$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 112.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Philadelphia Phillies | 23c | 110.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 105.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 105.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 103.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…a25cbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 102.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked New York Yankees | 42c | 102.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 65.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 61.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked New York Yankees | 33c | 58.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…1fb0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed New York Yankees | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed New York Yankees | 42c | 42.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked New York Yankees | 38c | 38.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 35.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf0…25e9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabaf…8651backed New York Yankees | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 26.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…d888backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.