Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90d994360433fe9b0b89a6bd1159237916700ade8263d89ce63669f4745be1fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed MOUZ | 75c | 3,255$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.56 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Yakult Brothers | 15c | 2,514$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.7 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yakult Brothers | 15c | 2,211$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yakult Brothers | 21c | 1,756$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.16 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yakult Brothers | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Yakult Brothers | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 1,152$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.65 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked MOUZ | 76c | 969$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.78 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 79c | 886.83$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.29 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Yakult Brothers | 6c | 839.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…19cfbacked MOUZ | 78c | 700$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 79c | 636.63$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Yakult Brothers | 18c | 604.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143f…8b42backed Yakult Brothers | 8c | 578.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Yakult Brothers | 25c | 392.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…2eb8backed MOUZ | 80c | 376.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yakult Brothers | 7c | 369.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yakult Brothers | 23c | 361$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…6b19backed MOUZ | 78c | 345.53$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed MOUZ | 80c | 340$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked MOUZ | 78c | 319.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed MOUZ | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +7.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…1d61backed MOUZ | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yakult Brothers | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Yakult Brothers | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed MOUZ | 74c | 271$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 268.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked MOUZ | 78c | 255.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f2…3263backed MOUZ | 79c | 254.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Yakult Brothers | 29c | 230.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 213.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yakult Brothers | 23c | 204.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…f0aebacked MOUZ | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Yakult Brothers | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 193.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers | 24c | 166.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yakult Brothers | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed MOUZ | 79c | 132.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…6f62backed MOUZ | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…7f0abacked MOUZ | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Yakult Brothers | 21c | 110.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yakult Brothers | 18c | 107.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Yakult Brothers | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yakult Brothers | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked Yakult Brothers | 24c | 83.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 71.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed MOUZ | 78c | 71.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…bb37backed MOUZ | 80c | 62.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…f64ebacked MOUZ | 78c | 51.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed MOUZ | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yakult Brothers | 23c | 47.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5635…3534backed MOUZ | 79c | 42.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…8c9bbacked Yakult Brothers | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed MOUZ | 77c | 38.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…5845backed MOUZ | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f4…d0f6backed MOUZ | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed MOUZ | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed MOUZ | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…9daabacked MOUZ | 71c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…6330backed MOUZ | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…89b0backed MOUZ | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed MOUZ | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked MOUZ | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked MOUZ | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed MOUZ | 77c | 24.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…dae3backed MOUZ | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…c2b5backed MOUZ | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.