Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91154afd1c166d93cf2f487e78df15df9ef0d8e705fa3325b3271e31b42941b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,614$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 700.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 7c | 404.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 13c | 399.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 20c | 388.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 7c | 323.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 10c | 277.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 7c | 273.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 257.69$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 16c | 246.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 197.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 20c | 196.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 193.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 16c | 180.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 9c | 171.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 9c | 147.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 135.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 15c | 131.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked Yes | 11c | 131.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 129.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes | 17c | 116.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 13c | 108.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 17c | 74.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 80c | 74.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 14c | 70.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 80c | 16.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.