Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8255ff27aca85564f53b0d48a8c763fca80be64635ae33f3ce7710139f7096f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 6c | 1,522$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 14c | 1,255$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.15 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 64c | 1,078$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.58 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 13c | 749.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 689.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 401.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 39c | 393.7$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes | 47c | 288.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 288$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 39c | 285.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.95 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 279$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 272.32$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 267.75$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 40c | 249.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 8c | 243.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 239.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 30c | 236.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 231.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 215.04$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 12c | 194.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 184.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 181.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 12c | 165.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 154.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 10c | 152.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 150.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 146.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 12c | 138.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 131.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 130.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 55c | 114.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 40c | 112.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 112$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…0511backed Yes | 46c | 107.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 37c | 107.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes | 34c | 105.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 101.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes | 39c | 100.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 100.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a8…130cbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 45c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 60c | 99.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 56c | 96.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 45c | 95.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 61c | 84.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 59c | 83.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 81.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 44c | 80.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 23c | 75.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 74.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 29c | 72.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 72.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 65c | 68.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 60c | 66.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 43c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 70c | 63.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 39c | 63.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 41c | 63.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 45c | 55.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 55c | 54.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 38c | 52.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 52.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 60c | 50.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…ba55backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 45c | 44.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 45c | 44.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 46c | 43.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 46c | 43.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 41.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.