TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,594
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,419

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,594 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7231…5afebacked Yes6c1,522$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.949634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes14c1,255$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No64c1,078$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.5839966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes13c749.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.56114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes3c689.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.382,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes5c401.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.011,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes39c393.7$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes47c288.46$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.961428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c288$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.893,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes39c285.65$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.951,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c279$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.085,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c272.32$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.524,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No69c267.75$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.722,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes40c249.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.455427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes8c243.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0412228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c239.65$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes30c236.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.515044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c231.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.965,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes8c220$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.273941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c215.04$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.055,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f6…15a2backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10817.4%6 W · 75 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes12c194.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.04119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No66c184.01$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.851,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c181.9$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.928,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes12c165.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0635742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes23c154.87$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1863323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbf…0771backed Yes10c152.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55205%1 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+66.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No75c150.21$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.692,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No64c146.76$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.692,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes12c138.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.059832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes38c131.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5437835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c130.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No55c114.82$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6763143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes40c112.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No56c112$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.282,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4371…0511backed Yes46c107.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes37c107.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes34c105.26$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No61c101.37$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes39c100.4$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c100.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.672138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4412941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a8…130cbacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes45c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No60c99.61$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…a4d5backed No56c96.16$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.165666.1%37 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes45c95.54$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.994738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No61c84.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2239157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed No59c83.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.995944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No61c81.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes44c80.35$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.018947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes41c78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.114562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes23c75.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3611129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes28c74.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes29c72.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.829728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No66c72.53$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.392,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No65c68.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No60c66.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9382268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes43c66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd912…32a2backed No70c63.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.993240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes39c63.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes41c63.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.129443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes46c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.325935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes45c55.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3111249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes45c55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.755731.6%18 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No55c54.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3224768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd83c…6b83backed Yes38c52.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No56c52.37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.042,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No60c50.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2216968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.511337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7492…ba55backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3a7…dfb2backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb17…ee85backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.57739%30 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x723e…083ebacked No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.54334.9%15 W · 28 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2116234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes45c44.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2216030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb674…e97abacked Yes45c44.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.7wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-58.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes45c43.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes45c43.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes46c43.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes46c43.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes28c42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.761,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes37c41.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4156131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes48c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5910745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.619123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No55c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5527669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.553,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.