TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7231…5afebacked Yes71c1,048$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.149634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No57c530.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed No66c511.96$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.3523743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No45c465.55$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.334,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c406$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.965,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No38c399.94$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.486114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0813…017ebacked Yes44c364.16$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.16955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes63c339.21$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked No7c328.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.06119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No40c313.49$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9663323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes34c307.3$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.221,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No49c287.61$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.812,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes37c269.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.075427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No42c260.91$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c258$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.284,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c244.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.251516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes75c231.79$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.065,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c230.77$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes46c221.81$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes28c220.24$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.49728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75c1…22e4backed Yes41c217.17$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.171040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c200$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1191,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes27c186.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No55c181.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.555158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No73c178.3$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13089661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No48c175.02$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.133,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes55c168.1$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5335742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes65c166.39$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.841,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes30c159.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.29156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c155.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.179,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No67c154.06$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c153.41$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.082,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No38c150.21$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.82,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No45c144.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.661,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c142.91$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.944,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x923f…6c4abacked No37c135.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.927346.6%34 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes35c119.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5424539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes29c116.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8886226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes29c115.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c113.46$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.879,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No48c113.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5644659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c110.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.727,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc2…0018backed Yes47c108.31$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.311631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No69c108.15$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.042,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No74c106.08$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9726067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c106.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0318534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes32c105.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d0…1284backed No66c105.29$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.24447.7%21 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes30c104.25$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes49c101.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.914652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x415e…8f12backed Yes68c100.05$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.348127.2%22 W · 59 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6111249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes47c99.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes36c98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.138551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed No36c93.77$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.115521.8%12 W · 43 L-12.8wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes40c89.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.491,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No24c81.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.777,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No22c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No32c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.251,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes29c77.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.949038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No59c75.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.548361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes60c75.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.914941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes67c75.01$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.015648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes41c73.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.811833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No65c72.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No25c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes39c69.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.691,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes38c69.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes37c68.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3114222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No59c67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5335058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No53c66.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4535854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes66c65$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2230442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes32c63.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.329443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No71c62.49$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3272837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff4…ba52backed Yes40c62.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No72c61.45$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes22c60.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7364333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.263,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c59$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.353,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked No41c58.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.029346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No50c58.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.515669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes30c58.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2493837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes55c58.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes35c58.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0325935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c58.48$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.623,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed No54c57.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.942138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x213d…6224backed No61c55.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes49c55.2$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.283941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No43c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.92,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes42c55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.916437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No59c54.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.445731.6%18 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6962…0629backed Yes39c53.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.513438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes53c53.06$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.063737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes36c52.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.365633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes49c51.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.111,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No59c50.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0516968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.