TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes1c24,455$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.472138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes0c10,226$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.62119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes7c2,488$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.812228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes10c2,353$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.5257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes6c2,152$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.229520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes2c1,765$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.425839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes5c1,440$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.823941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes5c1,438$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.517729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c991.54$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No78c749.4$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.3831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes12c587.4$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.869634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes23c519.36$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6310053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes13c469.65$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes13c434.11$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1163323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No75c423.24$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.714,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes10c415.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.089439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes9c395.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes12c393$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4642130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes12c387.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.991,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes26c378.78$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.89156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes10c365$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7492…ba55backed Yes27c340$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes14c319.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.949,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No80c312.46$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.031,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes9c301.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.875944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2119123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes21c280.02$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes18c279.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.55427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked Yes6c251.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.15714%8 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes5c245.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6334533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked Yes22c226.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes6c224.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.481,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes23c224.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5225742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7011947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed46…7f01backed Yes14c198$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd40f…8244backed Yes50c195.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c195.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes46c193$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.014126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed Yes6c190.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4111019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c52…1411backed Yes8c182.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.714540%18 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c180.34$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.614,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes17c175.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.156563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes14c174.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes14c166.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.19832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes29c164$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8635742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes19c163.51$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1452935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes37c163.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.741,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes8c160.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.812,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c149.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.782,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes10c148$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.516530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebec…1322backed Yes14c146.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes10c146.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.598920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe013…764fbacked Yes12c139.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16744.8%30 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf908…6718backed Yes11c136.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.994148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No74c136$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1219160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5cf…9c8cbacked Yes8c134.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.331225%3 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c128.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes12c121.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1537942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes11c121.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.117033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed Yes9c119$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7112625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No63c118.77$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6199961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes30c115.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7311438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34f…c66bbacked Yes28c113.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes32c111.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa2ea…8ed1backed Yes36c110$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.11457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes21c105$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4113531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x415e…8f12backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.84728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…717ebacked Yes32c98.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.096471.9%46 W · 18 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed Yes41c92.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.265521.8%12 W · 43 L-12.8wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes16c91.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No69c89.66$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7541258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes46c87.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No63c85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4622945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x997e…7e58backed No79c80.63$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.72744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77e6…0ae1backed Yes48c75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…b975backed Yes34c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+91%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.91,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No68c55.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.762,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes35c55.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.636376.2%48 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No79c53.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2438258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes25c51.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.067552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes39c51.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2082268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.111038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No65c47.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed No70c46.88$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2713765.7%90 W · 47 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x498f…a891backed Yes42c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.891485.7%12 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.023,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92f3…6f32backed Yes40c42.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes49c41.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1418033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa517…86c8backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes35c35.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.459346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8947…4635backed Yes46c30.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.223775.7%28 W · 9 L+6.1wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+45.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x318c…b4c8backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No80c27.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.521272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.754,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No62c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4552155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.