Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9123745928cf6fec981989c48f21f32abd5b06de0477a8f14e5d1383b934b5da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 19c | 771.4$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.53 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 604.68$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 489.15$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 347$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 20c | 294.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.46 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 229.2$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 18c | 178.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.37 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 165.58$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes | 24c | 163.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 56c | 161.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 52c | 160$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 145$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 135$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 80c | 129.46$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 76c | 121$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 52c | 112.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 27c | 106.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 99.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 93.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 88.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 24c | 74.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 72.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 70.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 77c | 56.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 23c | 55.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 55.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 24c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 73c | 46.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 35.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 29.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 29.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 76c | 24.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 77c | 23.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 21.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 21.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 19.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 16.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.