Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a749d84e4dc6081b4a132f0ad7c15652988aa81262b8432d4130c551dc3864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 74c | 1,045$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.72 | 629 | 47.4%298 W · 331 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed Yes | 17c | 660$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 33c | 449.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.82 | 569 | 43.4%247 W · 322 L | -32.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 66c | 419.59$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.84 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed No | 78c | 400$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 36 | 94.4%34 W · 2 L | +14.4wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 23c | 386.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.23 | 631 | 21.9%138 W · 493 L | -33.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 244.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.91 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 61c | 210$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 75c | 180$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 63c | 178.5$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 512 | 47.1%241 W · 271 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 178$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 22c | 169.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 21c | 159.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 157.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 26c | 146.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.39 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…639dbacked No | 36c | 139.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 136.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 40c | 134.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 130.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 125$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 46c | 124.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 22c | 112.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 112.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 106$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 27c | 105.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 980 | 13.9%136 W · 844 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 38c | 103$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…3740backed No | 23c | 102.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 59c | 102$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 1,063 | 35.1%373 W · 690 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 60c | 82.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 80.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 21c | 73.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 381 | 31%118 W · 263 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed No | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…5e3fbacked Yes | 59c | 66.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 34c | 60.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 34c | 53.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 24c | 48.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 42.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 39.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 75c | 38.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 38.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 47c | 36.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 49c | 30.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 41c | 30.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 29.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,275 | 47.6%607 W · 668 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 62c | 22.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 48c | 21.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 788 | 36.5%288 W · 500 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8695…54a2backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 58c | 18.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.