TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,588 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies62c9,095$5,603 inLost-$5,603.474,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers40c6,173$2,469 inWon+$3,703.9910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers38c3,767$1,435 inWon+$2,332.439,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies60c2,445$1,472 inLost-$1,471.6912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers36c603.35$217 inWon+$386.773,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Milwaukee Brewers40c380$153 inWon+$226.82,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43f3…293cbacked Milwaukee Brewers33c299.06$99 inWon+$200.3719550.8%99 W · 96 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers39c185.09$73 inWon+$112.346,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies61c92$56 inLost-$55.858,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Milwaukee Brewers41c84.7$35 inWon+$49.971,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Milwaukee Brewers41c62.13$25 inWon+$36.6669447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Philadelphia Phillies28c57.12$16 inLost-$16.091,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Milwaukee Brewers30c50$15 inWon+$3525034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1486…cef3backed Milwaukee Brewers33c35.88$12 inWon+$24.046860.3%41 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb1c6…2d29backed Milwaukee Brewers33c35.88$12 inWon+$24.046459.4%38 W · 26 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ae9…5ff8backed Milwaukee Brewers33c35.88$12 inWon+$24.045455.6%30 W · 24 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Milwaukee Brewers37c35.67$13 inWon+$22.4983053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda67…0b91backed Milwaukee Brewers33c34.83$11 inWon+$23.345657.1%32 W · 24 L+6.5wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Milwaukee Brewers41c26.24$11 inWon+$15.3987370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies65c19.43$13 inLost-$12.634,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies67c17.79$12 inLost-$11.922,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Philadelphia Phillies64c16.44$11 inLost-$10.64254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.