MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ad29366628b0931f96d0942cb8c986f0e8e59a1064f8e94e441f3c8f4407891
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 4,449$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.57 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 4,444$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.87 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 1,341$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.73 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 1,190$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 53c | 1,134$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 1,050$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.38 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 999.98$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 774.71$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.76 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 752$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 52c | 674$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.48 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 53c | 660.38$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 48c | 335.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 48c | 317.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.94 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 266.58$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 52c | 221.15$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 218.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 190.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 181.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 176.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 48c | 166.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 42c | 131$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 73c | 76.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 53c | 54.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 48c | 48.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 45.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 39c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 24.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 51c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 80c | 14.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.