MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9461ed1a763f26ee74d4ecd857a859efd9d58c81553bd3744080890d5e529817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 5,150$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 3,585$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 10c | 1,765$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,577$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 12c | 808.52$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 14c | 589.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 58c | 584.63$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.69 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 385.91$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 383$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.07 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 40c | 348.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.39 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Under | 56c | 285.09$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 258.24$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.57 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 199.77$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 49c | 131.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…7540backed Over | 65c | 88.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 60c | 87.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 35c | 86.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 58c | 72.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 64.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 36c | 61.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Over | 65c | 55.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 33c | 48.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 57c | 44.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 35c | 38.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 47c | 31.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 51c | 25.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.