CS2 · resolved market
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Aurora vs. MOUZ
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9153e37f7b87677b84a7397c3117d18a039107a067ec4990d32465145ab7f24d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Aurora, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 68c | 4,267$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.02 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Aurora | 37c | 3,164$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.46 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Aurora | 6c | 2,812$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.19 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed MOUZ | 55c | 2,623$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.35 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Aurora | 37c | 2,525$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.5 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked MOUZ | 62c | 1,833$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.66 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Aurora | 9c | 1,558$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…37c4backed Aurora | 39c | 1,458$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Aurora | 19c | 1,012$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ | 64c | 958.58$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.68 | 646 | 52.8%341 W · 305 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked MOUZ | 57c | 700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…5fc7backed Aurora | 43c | 681.75$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed MOUZ | 79c | 582.04$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Aurora | 30c | 574.26$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.06 | 178 | 47.8%85 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…a44ebacked MOUZ | 60c | 557.68$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.48 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed MOUZ | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Aurora | 37c | 499.97$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 815 | 44.4%362 W · 453 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Aurora | 29c | 470$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…fe6bbacked Aurora | 35c | 358.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked MOUZ | 63c | 331.75$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked MOUZ | 75c | 329.14$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed MOUZ | 52c | 325.58$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Aurora | 44c | 322.27$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.65 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed Aurora | 22c | 318.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…5a9dbacked MOUZ | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Aurora | 36c | 289$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked MOUZ | 64c | 275$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Aurora | 41c | 208.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aurora | 11c | 186$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Aurora | 28c | 184.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0563…340dbacked MOUZ | 63c | 171.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 68c | 164.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7d47backed MOUZ | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…5b99backed Aurora | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Aurora | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Aurora | 39c | 140.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Aurora | 57c | 139.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked MOUZ | 63c | 122.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 634 | 45.3%287 W · 347 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Aurora | 48c | 115.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora | 53c | 83.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 422 | 57.3%242 W · 180 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8927backed MOUZ | 64c | 74.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…d7e1backed Aurora | 42c | 73.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb192…9516backed MOUZ | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked MOUZ | 64c | 68.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6b…88a7backed Aurora | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked MOUZ | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6023…a142backed MOUZ | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…7208backed MOUZ | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…509abacked MOUZ | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked MOUZ | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed MOUZ | 60c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.