Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-08-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x915663355e19a833efc0a6bd016bb687388e562ea41ecc7c3d9a0e0c35ca2c0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 10c | 1,843$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 1,428$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.15 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,344$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 1,204$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.45 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 9c | 895$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 76c | 891.75$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.02 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 76c | 625$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 70c | 594.03$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…44b2backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 19c | 306.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 11c | 275.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…b518backed Yes | 11c | 187.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed Yes | 11c | 184.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 26c | 183.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Yes | 21c | 146.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…4f62backed Yes | 11c | 139.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed Yes | 11c | 103.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 39c | 103$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -81%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 31c | 66.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Yes | 24c | 49.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 29c | 41.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 79c | 39.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed No | 71c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…231bbacked No | 69c | 17.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-08-20?this page
- Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. Ararat-Armenia FA end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-08-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.