Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91677c72ac2dcb5bca3d20e1d6d7bedebf10cf5750d3df9c83b74d6dd514b0b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 61c | 1,236$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.61 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 42c | 979.49$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.28 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 39c | 326$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 314.33$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 40c | 252.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 64c | 209.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 40c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 185.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…f0b9backed No | 65c | 145$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 24c | 132.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 129.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 115.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec93…f56bbacked Yes | 16c | 107.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 107.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…64e5backed Yes | 19c | 101.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa13…7836backed Yes | 14c | 101.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3acd…5b1bbacked Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 96.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 56c | 88.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 83.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 74c | 78.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 78.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 69.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 68.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 39c | 67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 18c | 59.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 58.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 32c | 54.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed No | 67c | 51.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 44.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 37.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Yes | 40c | 37.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 42c | 36.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 31.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 42c | 28.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 25.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…1697backed No | 63c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.