MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x916f93c7ba5c196fae86544e488a8e63509501d16a23055848f62788edd10b4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 39,427$20,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,926.34 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 16,019$7,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,689 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Over | 48c | 14,666$7,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,039.68 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460 | 277 | 53.4%148 W · 129 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 2,610$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.05 | 284 | 50.7%144 W · 140 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +9.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 1,420$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.24 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 1,094$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.7 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 1,024$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.52 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 780$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 662.39$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.95 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 48c | 450.52$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.25 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 386$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.68 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 48c | 339$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,205 | 49%591 W · 614 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 972 | 53.1%516 W · 456 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 18c | 112.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 102.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 10c | 101.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 62c | 76.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…d1bfbacked Over | 51c | 56.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 63c | 53.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 5,235 | 56.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L | +130.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Under | 37c | 53.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 45.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 48c | 42.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 53c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…9526backed Under | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 25.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 48c | 24.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0d…596cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea06…39acbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 71c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 929 | 46.1%428 W · 501 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.