MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4b03b2b41484de15c2a143e1f6d52fc350ebe1161448749c6062ddd6b3a74fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 28,333$17,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,084.69 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 13,172$5,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,903.26 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 7,030$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,028.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 2,636$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.83 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 1,842$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Minnesota Twins | 21c | 1,019$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 899.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 609.65$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.89 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 536.5$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 397.97$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 348.18$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.07 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 320$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 301$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 285.89$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.39 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 199.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 144.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 140.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 138.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins | 20c | 119.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 117.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Minnesota Twins | 14c | 94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 76.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 49.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 40.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 79c | 22.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb3…cbafbacked Chicago Cubs | 64c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.