Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x917670f785ea9bb3373dce3fe4f0c79f31c22e61bb513eab2ae05737b74b5e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 225.2$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 71c | 167.84$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 66c | 152.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 65c | 139.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 134.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 128.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 27c | 124.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 70c | 117.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 98.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 92.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 44c | 90.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 85.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 23c | 83.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 82.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 82.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 65c | 77.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 31c | 60.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 58.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 64c | 49.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 66c | 45.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 45.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed Yes | 36c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 28c | 42.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 79c | 41.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 41.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 29c | 39.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 61c | 37.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 48c | 32.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 53c | 30.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 30.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 59c | 29.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 73c | 28.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 47c | 27.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 22.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 22.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 71c | 22.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 73c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 74c | 19.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 58c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 17.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fb…4af5backed No | 76c | 15.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 70c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.