Tennis · resolved market
Tenerife 2: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alejandro Moro Canas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9177bcc2f6db379b71a1d1cd5d8fdc544bcc5f58c079ce375f1ea7e43cbded87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canasof Aguilar, Canas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Canas | 34c | 5,767$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,819.37 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aguilar | 0c | 5,527$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Aguilar | 61c | 3,745$2,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286.9 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Canas | 6c | 1,497$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.14 | 75 | 5.3%4 W · 71 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Canas | 63c | 1,209$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.93 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Aguilar | 33c | 1,200$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.99 | 4,411 | 51.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L | +137.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked Aguilar | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Aguilar | 65c | 744.62$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb275…c76fbacked Aguilar | 68c | 634.01$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Aguilar | 8c | 486.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…8f3cbacked Aguilar | 57c | 367.77$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Canas | 49c | 367.07$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.04 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Aguilar | 47c | 352$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.37 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…dea9backed Aguilar | 43c | 350.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Aguilar | 57c | 266.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 218 | 43.1%94 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Canas | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 452 | 51.5%233 W · 219 L | -21.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Aguilar | 60c | 199.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Aguilar | 67c | 185.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Aguilar | 67c | 146.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Aguilar | 66c | 145$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Canas | 40c | 125.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 6,740 | 48.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L | +58.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Canas | 41c | 117.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Aguilar | 65c | 106.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Canas | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 4,070 | 39.7%1,617 W · 2,453 L | +92.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Canas | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Canas | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Aguilar | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Canas | 45c | 89.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 235 | 54.5%128 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Canas | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 345 | 38%131 W · 214 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Canas | 59c | 66.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 824 | 60.6%499 W · 325 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Canas | 34c | 61.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 3,862 | 34.9%1,348 W · 2,514 L | +92.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2139backed Aguilar | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Aguilar | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aguilar | 69c | 44.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Canas | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Aguilar | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Canas | 41c | 36.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Aguilar | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Aguilar | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tenerife 2: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alejandro Moro Canasthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Aguilar vs CanasCanas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.