Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91d2a043a00e19fa8af7befe79982d86d1b77f4fdc65ecc72871e2ddbdcaba5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 2,116$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.22 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 58c | 1,259$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.73 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 61c | 1,152$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.21 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 53c | 700.87$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 538.06$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.41 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 501.98$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 11c | 448.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 51c | 425$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.55 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 388.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 42c | 353.75$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 39c | 335.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 272.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 239.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 45c | 215$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.97 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 39c | 211.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 184.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 173.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 58c | 155.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 41c | 151.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 147$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 136.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1826…c31ebacked Yes | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 131.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 78c | 128.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 126.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 118.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 56c | 116.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 49c | 114$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 35c | 113.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 73c | 110.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 36c | 105.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 53c | 97.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 95.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 93.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 91.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…711ebacked Yes | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 46c | 80.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 34c | 76.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 72.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 67.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 24c | 63.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 60.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 64c | 55.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 50.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 46.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 45.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 40c | 44.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 59c | 42.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 50c | 38.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 73c | 38.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31f9…5154backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 40c | 36.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 38c | 32.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 30.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 50c | 29.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 27.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…6957backed Yes | 41c | 24.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 24.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 51c | 24.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 50c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 17.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…7d5abacked Yes | 64c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 66c | 16.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.