Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520d17a9a1d31a3ee71c9520464c81c0468b23b4bf6d4680a5d51536202458e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 1c | 2,885$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 1,504$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 607.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 457.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 20c | 405.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 14c | 345.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 18c | 295.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 79c | 251.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 27c | 205.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 195$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 164$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 68c | 161.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 152.2$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 150.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 17c | 148.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 37c | 141.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 135.78$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 131.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 17c | 128.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 19c | 117.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…2a44backed Yes | 19c | 110.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 103.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 73c | 97.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 20c | 91.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 25c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 15c | 87.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 16c | 86.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 51c | 85.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 76.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 22c | 71.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 64.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 17c | 62.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 55c | 54.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 54.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 52.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 50.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 43.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 64c | 38.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 47c | 34.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 30.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 70c | 27.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 80c | 16.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.