Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630c7db084073ffc2ee00ee75c7761f17dbd7875c0aad0e528b8e24154e6ada6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 23c | 796.72$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 21c | 756.07$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.43 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 481.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 25c | 460.4$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 14c | 425.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 322.46$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 310$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 79c | 296$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 288.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 9c | 231.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 11c | 217.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 214.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 196.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 187.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 178.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 176.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 159.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 154.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 8c | 137.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 130.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 80c | 104$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 30c | 95.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 94.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 78.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 77.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 73.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 67.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 65.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 60.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 26c | 58.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 80c | 57.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 32c | 53.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 45.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 44.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 42.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 42.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 42.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 75c | 33.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 75c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.