Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91f1633132d7e282fa63a51aa37f1f6d8063df33dfad24ee701763610712332d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,572$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.11 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 56c | 1,168$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.73 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 700$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 58c | 621.04$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.84 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…a061backed No | 79c | 600$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 460.77$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 27c | 414.4$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 326.23$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.16 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 288.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 45c | 262.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.68 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 249.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 242.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 234.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 219.3$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 217$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 53c | 214.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 199.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…c1b5backed Yes | 51c | 196.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…62b0backed Yes | 43c | 172.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 171.61$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 154.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 152.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 47c | 142.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 33c | 122.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 65c | 120.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 109.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 50c | 107.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 107.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 45c | 106.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 48c | 101.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 90.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…964bbacked Yes | 30c | 83.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 68.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 66.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 64.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 34c | 61.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 60.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 57c | 60.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 52c | 59.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 43c | 50.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 36c | 46.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 59c | 45.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 43.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 60c | 42.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 64c | 34.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed No | 52c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 62c | 33.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 29.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 28.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 27.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 50c | 26.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 56c | 24.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…3b11backed Yes | 42c | 24.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…163cbacked No | 59c | 23.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…0f96backed No | 59c | 23.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 20.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 59c | 17.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.