Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd67f4158600e7edd8aa02a7669231e9eeca5f8334c2f786710e06a737fece4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,096$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,050$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.96 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 652.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 368.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 19c | 307.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 186.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 183.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 181.2$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 179.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…62b0backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 158.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 79c | 138$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 117.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 18c | 109.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 78c | 105.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 80c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 95.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 15c | 79.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 74.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 66.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 77c | 57.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 77c | 34.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2491…8456backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed No | 78c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 78c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.