Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e9df414633785870d5cde22bfbd28d832ec5da1c7bee593f24cb92d903205e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 69c | 1,644$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.34 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,506$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.56 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 27c | 1,500$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.33 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 78c | 772.36$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.44 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 22c | 763.54$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 627.3$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 15c | 513.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 451.12$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.97 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 30c | 345.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 319.23$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 57c | 316.04$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 315.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 299$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.86 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 291.57$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…c1b5backed Yes | 73c | 275.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 210.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 171.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 26c | 164.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 63c | 162.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 159$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 157.32$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 154.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 146$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 28c | 138.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 132.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 123.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 37c | 111.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 30c | 107.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 76c | 104.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 102.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 94.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 25c | 81.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 63c | 78.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 78.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 76.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 71.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 63c | 60.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 59.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 21c | 55.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 38c | 54.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 52.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 59c | 50.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 46c | 49.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 48c | 48.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 47.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 32c | 45.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 39.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 32c | 37.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 36.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 32.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 31.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 41c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…9d4cbacked Yes | 76c | 25.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23d…fa68backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…8b76backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 75c | 15.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on August 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on August 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.